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Unit OT 18-35, Level 18, Central Park Towers, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, P.O. Box 18006, United Arab Emirates
16200 Central Green Blvd
GAC Regional Office, Asia Pacific 78 Shenton Way, #29-01
Group Vice President, Asia Pacific & Indian Subcontinent
Unit OT 18-35, Level 18, Central Park Towers, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, P.O. Box 18006, United Arab Emirates
Unit OT 18-35, Level 18, Central Park Towers, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, P.O. Box 18006, United Arab Emirates
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16 Dec 2021 / Philippines
TY 28W (Typhoon Rai) has undergone extremely rapid intensification, which was not previously forecast, and while its track has not significantly changed, its forecast intensity forecast has been increased dramatically – up 55 knots, from 85 knots to 140 knots.
The system is forecast to make landfall along the northeastern tip of Mindanao, near Surigao City. It will then cross the southern portion of the Philippine Islands and into the Sulu Sea by Tau 36.
As the system moves into the South China Sea, it is forecast to weaken in the ridge to the north, before gradually turning poleward in response, through the remainder of the forecast period.
It is forecast to continue to rapidly intensify to a peak of at least 140 knots prior to landfall. After landfall, significant weakening is expected. However, once the system emerges back over the South China Sea, increased upper-level outflow and decreased shear will allow for a period of intensification to a second peak of 110 knots by Tau 72. Thereafter a strong cold surge will bring cool, relatively dry-air down from the north, and southwesterly shear will increase sharply as the system interacts with a mid-latitude trough to the west. The combined effects of these unfavorable conditions will be fairly rapid weakening as the system tracks northward to the east of Hainan Island.
For further updates, as well as information about operations in the Philippines, contact GAC Philippines at [email protected]